CIA, Mossad Agree That Iran is Not Pursuing Nuclear Weapons


Mossad, CIA agree Iran has yet to decide to build nuclear weapon (Ha’aretz):

Israel’s intelligence services agree with American intelligence assessments that there is not enough proof to determine whether Iran is building a nuclear bomb, according to a report published Sunday in the New York Times.

The newspaper said that senior American officials believe there is little disagreement between the Mossad and U.S. intelligence agencies over Iran’s nuclear program, despite the fact that Israeli political leaders have been pushing for quick action to block Iran from becoming what they describe as an existential threat.

The report further quoted one former senior American intelligence official who states that the Mossad “does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,” adding that there is “not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”

U.S. Faces a Tricky Task in Assessment of Data on Iran (New York Times):

Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, agrees with the American intelligence assessments, even while Israeli political leaders have been pushing for quick, aggressive action to block Iran from becoming what they describe as an existential threat to the Jewish state.

“Their people ask very hard questions, but Mossad does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,” said one former senior American intelligence official, who, like others for this article, would speak only on the condition of anonymity about classified information. “There is not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”

In trying to evaluate the potential perils of Iran’s nuclear program, the United States’ spy agencies have spent years trying to track its efforts to enrich uranium and develop missile technology, and watching for any move toward weaponization — designing and building a bomb.

The United States and Israel share intelligence on Iran, American officials said. For its spying efforts, Israel relies in part on an Iranian exile group that is labeled a terrorist organization by the United States, the Mujahedeen Khalq, or M.E.K., which is based in Iraq. The Israelis have also developed close ties in the semiautonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, and they are believed to use Kurdish agents who can move back and forth across the border into Iran.

American intelligence officials, however, are wary of relying on information from an opposition group like the M.E.K., particularly after their experience in Iraq of relying on flawed information provided by the Iraqi National Congress, an exile group run by Ahmad Chalabi.

“I’m very suspicious of anything that the M.E.K. provides,” said David A. Kay, who led the C.I.A.’s fruitless effort to find weapons program in Iraq. “We all dealt with the Chalabis of the world once.”

Just as in 2010, new evidence about the Iranian nuclear program delayed the National Intelligence Estimate in 2007, the last previous assessment. Current and former American officials say that a draft version of the assessment had been completed when the United States began to collect surprising intelligence suggesting that Iran had suspended its weapons program and disbanded its weapons team four years earlier.

The draft version had concluded that the Iranians were still trying to build a bomb, the same finding of a 2005 assessment. But as they scrutinized the new intelligence from several sources, including intercepted communications in which Iranian officials were heard complaining to one another about stopping the program, the American intelligence officials decided they had to change course, officials said. While enrichment activities continued, the evidence that Iran had halted its weapons program in 2003 at the direction of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was too strong to ignore, they said.

One former senior official characterized the information as very persuasive. “I had high confidence in it,” he said. “There was tremendous evidence that the program had been halted.”

And today, despite criticism of that assessment from some outside observers and hawkish politicians, American intelligence analysts still believe that the Iranians have not gotten the go-ahead from Ayatollah Khamenei to revive the program.

“That assessment,” said one American official, “holds up really well.”

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2 comments for “CIA, Mossad Agree That Iran is Not Pursuing Nuclear Weapons

  1. A US libertarian
    March 25, 2012 at 5:39 am

    I wouldnt care even if it was pursuing them. I do not care.
    Iran’s beef with Israel is a beef with Israel. I do not care about Israel, a country that is geographically the size of a pea and is oceans and many many miles away from the country in which I live. I recognize and see that people have been fighting over this small tract of land for over a millenium. This is a religious issue, not an issue that my government should care about, or an issue that I care about. Let people bicker over this small tract of land, I do not care. If it is nuked, then good, it will be radiation poisoned for several thousand years and no human can live in it and therefore no human can fight over it. If my unintelligent government wishes to do anything with Israel/Palestine/Whatever then I strongly urge them to forcibly evict every single person from the area and then deliberately contaminate that tract of land with cesium isotopes so that no human can live there and fight over this idiot piece of land again. Let me make it clear: This land is not a “holy” land, no land is holy that kills thousands of people a year just for being on a map. This land is not evil either, its a piece of land. A geographical area. And not only do I not care who controls it, I do not care about who lives on it either, nor do I care what becomes of those people. It is none of my business, and none of my country’s business. Israelis knew the risks when they first took that land from Britain. The allies after WWII strongly discouraged them from taking it. The zionist movement ignored the allies advice, and settled it anyway. They ignored the Allied nations, we are therefore absolved of any responsibility toward them. Is Iran going to nuke Israel? Good for Iran. I do not care, it is not my problem.

  2. eric
    February 7, 2014 at 7:28 pm

    Living in a vacuum is a good thing for you. Maybe the oxygen deprivation will help your brain. A nuclear Iran is a not your issue? When gas is $50 a gallon because Iran has decided to shut the strait of Hormuz because it wants something it doesn’t have it will be too late to act militarily since the bomb will be Iran’s security.
    Why don’t you move to France where you belong.

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