(U//FOUO) Open Source Center Autonomous Kurds in Post-Asad Syria Unlikely

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OSC Analysis: Syria — Autonomous, Federal Status for Kurds Unlikely

GMF20120820256001 Syria — OSC Analysis in English 20 Aug 12

Syria — Autonomous, Federal Status for Kurds in Post-Al-Asad Syria Unlikely

An autonomous or federal Kurdistan within Syria — similar to that which exists in Iraq — is unlikely because of intra-Kurdish conflict and the opposition of Turkey and the Syrian National Council (SNC) — the main external Syrian opposition group.

Disunity between the two main Kurdish forces in Syria, the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and the Kurdish Syrian National Council (ENKS), suggests that the main Kurdish parties themselves cannot agree on how Syrian Kurdistan should be governed.

In possible anticipation of events in Syrian Kurdistan, Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Mas’ud Barzani brokered a conciliation agreement on 11 July between the People’s Council of Western Kurdistan — an offshoot of the PYD believed to be affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan People’s Congress (KGK), which was formerly known as the PKK — and the ENKS. As part of this Arbil agreement, Kurdish groups formed a higher Kurdish commission to administer Syria’s Kurdish areas after the Syrian Army withdrew, according to the Iraqi independent daily Al-Zaman (27 July).[ 1]
However, some media reports — possibly influenced by the ENKS — have suggested that the PYD took sole control of Syrian Kurdistan in late July, exploiting its reputed ties to the Syrian regime. ENKS figure Abd-al-Karim Bashar, for example, told independent Kurdish weekly Rudaw, that the Syrian Army had abandoned its posts to the PYD because it was the Syrian regime’s “partner” (10 August).[ 2] Defecting Syrian Army officer Fayiz Amr told Londonbased, Saudi-financed, pan-Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat that Damascus had armed the PYD and intimidated other parties (28 July).[ 3]

Kurdish Entities in Syria Make Disunity Likely

The Syrian Kurdish political landscape consists of several parties — some of which have historically been heavily influenced by Damascus or Iraqi Kurdistan President Barzani.

The ENKS, formed in October 2011 under the auspices of Kurdistan Region President Mas’ud Barzani as an umbrella grouping of 16 parties, maintains strong ties with Barzani and has opposed the Al-Asad regime (18 August).[ 4]
The PYD, led by Salih Muslim, is a very influential and popular Kurdish party and believed to be the Syrian version of the KGK (Al-Sharq al-Awsat, 9 July).[ 5]

Turkey Views Kurds’ Self-Administration in Syria as Threat to National Security

Turkey’s recent military and political mobilization suggests concern that Syria Kurd’s self-administration might aggravate its conflict with the KGK/PKK.

Turkish statements indicate alarm over the PYD. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not ruled out military incursions in pursuit of KGK/PKK forces (Today’s Zaman, 6 August).[ 6] He claimed that Turkey enjoys a right to intervene in Syria if “terrorist formations” pose a threat, according to Istanbul daily Hurriyet (26 July).[ 7]
Several media reports suggest that Turkey tried to persuade Barzani to discourage self-administration in Syrian Kurdistan.[a] During Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s 31 July visit to Arbil — in which he met with KRG officials, the ENKS, the SNC, but not the PYD[ 8] — Davutoglu may have lent support to KRG claims to Kirkuk[b] in return for Barzani’s cooperation in containing Syria’s Kurds, according to independent Al-Sharqiyah Satellite TV (Hurriyet Daily, 7 August;7 August).[ 9]

Federal Status for Syrian Kurds in Post-Al-Asad Syria Unlikely

Turkey’s ostensible acceptance of Kurdish rights in Syria is possibly conditioned on the SNC’s stated opposition to Kurdish autonomy or self-administration.

A Turkish plan discussed with Barzani rejected any ethnic-based structure in Syria before Al-Asad’s fall but accepted the possibility of an autonomous Kurdish region in post-Al-Asad Syria, pending approval by Syria’s people within the framework of a new constitution, according to the independent Iraqi website Shafaq News (31 July).[ 10]
SNC President Abd-al-Basit Sida, however, categorically rejected a federal Syria, stressing that the PYD must respect Syria’s territorial integrity, according to the privately owned Kurdish newspaper Hawlati (5 August).[ 11]

[a] For more information, see the 7 August OSC Report, Turkey — Ankara Upholds Syrian Kurds’ Rights in Pluralistic New Syria (EUP20120807346001EUP20120807346001).
[b] Davutoglu visited Kirkuk following his meeting in Arbil without informing the central government in Baghdad. Al-Sharqiyah reported Baghdad’s fury over the unannounced visit.

Open Source Center

(U//FOUO) Open Source Center Autonomous Kurds in Post-Asad Syria Unlikely

August 24, 2012

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