(U//LES) LA-SAFE Geomagnetic Storm Warning
February 17, 2011 in Intelligence Fusion Centers, Louisiana
Louisiana State Analytical & Fusion Exchange (LA-SAFE)
- 1 page
- Law Enforcement Sensitive
- February 16, 2011
A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are en route to Earth from a sunspot which will buffet the Earth’s magnetic field during the next 12 to 60 hours. These CMEs are a result of the strongest solar flare in more than four years, which peaked on February 15th and registered as an X-flare. X-flares are the strongest type of solar flare. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of geomagnetic activity on February 17, 2011.
Geomagnetic storms usually last 24 to 48 hours, but some may last for many days. They also have the capability of disrupting communication systems, navigation systems and electric grids.
TV and commercial radio stations are usually not affected by this type of solar activity; however, ground-to-air, ship-to-shore, shortwave broadcast, and amateur radio are vulnerable to disruption during geomagnetic storms. Navigation systems like GPS can also be adversely affected. Some of the worst geomagnetic storms have the potential to knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.
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It helps to know what you are talking about. A large group does not have a sfiginicant effect on the sunspot number alone, it will have a large effect on the average sunspot area particualrly in a period when most spots are small (such as now).Go to your own solar page and look at the average areas, flux, and area on the linked sites for the month. You need to understand the basic relation between those three parameters.You could also write Leif, he will agree with me.REPLY: Oh please. Lots of griping over semantics there Brad, and the use of the word group which you missed the first time, (you also missed but there’s more than that ) but your M.O. here has been all about griping about petty things. [yawn] But I’ve added the word partly to satisfy the whining. I’m simply saying that the SSN of the group had a sfiginicant effect too, it was the big news of the month, and note that the last time we had daily SSN’s over 100 was March 8th, 2011. Yes there were lots of sunspecks too, some of them not worth counting, and certainly not visible when Wolf and others were doing SSN count work with equipment of the period. The issue of overinflation of the SSN due to counting specks is an issue we’ve addressed many times. Be as upset as you wish. Anthony