UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

(U) WARNING: THIS JOINT DHS/FBI DOCUMENT IS UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (U//FOUO). IT IS SUBJECT TO RELEASE RESTRICTIONS AS DETAILED IN THE HOMELAND SECURITY ACT OF 2002 (6 U.S.C. 482) AND THE FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT (5 U.S.C. 552). IT IS TO BE CONTROLLED, STORED, HANDLED, TRANSMITTED, DISTRIBUTED, AND DISPOSED OF IN ACCORDANCE WITH DHS AND FBI POLICY FOR FOUO INFORMATION AND IS NOT TO BE RELEASED TO THE PUBLIC, MEDIA, OR OTHER PERSONNEL WHO DO NOT HAVE AN AUTHORIZED NEED-TO-KNOW WITHOUT APPROPRIATE PRIOR AUTHORIZATION.

(U) WARNING: THIS PRODUCT MAY CONTAIN U.S. PERSON INFORMATION THAT HAS BEEN DEEMED NECESSARY FOR THE INTENDED RECIPIENT TO UNDERSTAND, ASSESS, OR ACT ON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED. U.S. PERSON INFORMATION IS HIGHLIGHTED WITH THE LABEL USPER AND SHOULD BE PROTECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH CONSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENTS AND ALL FEDERAL AND STATE PRIVACY AND CIVIL LIBERTIES LAWS.

(U//FOUO) SECURITY AWARENESS FOR THE 2010 HOLIDAY SEASON 15 DECEMBER 2010

(U) SCOPE

(U//FOUO) THIS JOINT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN PROVIDES LAW ENFORCEMENT AND PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR SAFETY OFFICIALS WITH AN EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL TERRORIST THREATS DURING THE 2010 U.S. HOLIDAY SEASON, EXTENDING FROM THE PRE-CHRISTMAS PERIOD THROUGH NEW YEAR’S DAY. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO SUPPORT THE ACTIVITIES OF DHS AND FBI AND TO HELP FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT COUNTERTERRORISM AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS DETER, PREVENT, PREEMPT, OR RESPOND TO TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES.

(U) KEY FINDINGS

(U//FOUO) AL-QA’IDA, ITS AFFILIATES, AND THOSE MOTIVATED BY AL-QA’IDA’S IDEOLOGY TO COMMIT TERRORIST ATTACKS CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE UNITED STATES. WE ARE CONCERNED THESE TERRORISTS MAY SEEK TO EXPLOIT THE LIKELY SIGNIFICANT PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF AN ATTACK TARGETING MASS GATHERINGS IN LARGE METROPOLITAN AREAS DURING THE 2010 HOLIDAY SEASON, WHICH HAS SYMBOLIC IMPORTANCE TO MANY IN THE UNITED STATES. WE CONTINUE TO ASSESS, HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF A TERRORIST ATTACK DEPENDS MORE ON TERRORISTS’ READINESS TO EXECUTE AN ATTACK RATHER THAN A DESIRE TO ATTACK ON A SPECIFIC DATE.

(U//FOUO) BASED ON OUR REVIEW OF HISTORICAL HOMELAND AND OVERSEAS TERRORIST PLOTS, WE ASSESS THAT IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES (IEDS) AND SMALL ARMS, POSSIBLY USED IN COMBINATION, WOULD FIGURE PROMINENTLY IN A POTENTIAL HOLIDAY SEASON TERRORIST ATTACK.

(U//FOUO) PERSISTENT THREAT FROM AL-QA’IDA AND AFFILIATES

(U//FOUO) WE ASSESS THE EVOLVING TERRORIST THREAT TO THE HOMELAND, PARTICULARLY FROM AL-QA’IDA, ITS AFFILIATES, AND THOSE MOTIVATED BY AL-QA’IDA’S IDEOLOGY TO COMMIT TERRORIST ATTACKS WILL PERSIST DURING THE 2010 HOLIDAY SEASON. DURING THE LAST YEAR, AL-QA’IDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA (AQAP) AND TEHRIK-E TALIBAN PAKISTAN (TTP) HAVE ATTEMPTED TO CARRY OUT ATTACKS IN THE UNITED STATES, THEREBY RAISING THEIR INTERNATIONAL PROFILE. WE CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY THAT OTHER AL-QA’IDA-LINKED GROUPS, SUCH AS AL-QA’IDA IN IRAQ, AL-QA’IDA IN THE ISLAMIC MAGHREB, LASHKAR-E TAYYIBA, OR AL-SHABAAB, WILL ATTEMPT TO TARGET THE HOMELAND DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON.

(U//FOUO) AQAP TARGETED U.S. COMMERCIAL AND CARGO AVIATION IN FAILED ATTACKS USING IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES ON 25 DECEMBER 2009 AND 29 OCTOBER 2010, RESPECTIVELY. IN CLAIMS OF RESPONSIBILITY FOR EACH INCIDENT, AQAP THREATENED FOLLOW-ON ATTACKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES. AQAP ALSO HAS USED ITS ENGLISH-LANGUAGE INSPIRE MAGAZINE TO PROMOTE INDIVIDUAL VIOLENT JIHAD IN THE WEST AND STATED ITS INTENT TO PROLIFERATE ITS EXPLOSIVE DEVICE DESIGNS TO “MUJAHIDIN AROUND THE WORLD.”

(U//FOUO) ON 1 MAY 2010, FAISAL SHAHZADUSPER, A NATURALIZED U.S. CITIZEN FROM PAKISTAN, FAILED IN HIS ATTEMPT TO DETONATE A VEHICLE-BORNE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICE (VBIED) IN TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK CITY. SHAHZAD ADMITTED TO HAVING RECEIVED EXPLOSIVES INSTRUCTION AND FUNDING FROM TTP FOR HIS PLOT, ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE. IN A VIDEO STATEMENT RELEASED SHORTLY AFTER SHAHZAD’S FAILED ATTACK, TTP LEADER HAKIMULLAH MEHSUD THREATENED THAT “FROM NOW ON, THE MAIN CITIES OF THE U.S. WILL BE THE TARGET OF OUR ISLAMIC FIGHTERS.”

(U//FOUO) HOLIDAY-RELATED GATHERINGS AND TRAVEL: POTENTIALLY ATTRACTIVE TARGETS

(U//FOUO) TERRORISTS MAY VIEW SPORTING EVENTS, PARADES, RELIGIOUS AND CULTURAL ACTIVITIES, RETAIL CENTERS AND SHOPPING MALLS, AIRPORTS, AND PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS AS ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE TARGETS DURING THE HOLIDAY SEASON. ATTACKS AGAINST THESE TARGETS COULD MAXIMIZE THE PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC GIVEN THE SYMBOLIC IMPORTANCE OF THE HOLIDAY SEASON TO MANY IN THE UNITED STATES.

(U//FOUO) ON 11 DECEMBER 2010, TWO EXPLOSIONS ASSESSED TO BE TERRORIST ATTACKS OCCURRED IN A HEAVILY-POPULATED SHOPPING DISTRICT IN DOWNTOWN STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN, ACCORDING TO INTERNATIONAL PRESS ACCOUNTS. THE FIRST EXPLOSION INVOLVED A CAR CONTAINING FIREWORKS AND GAS CANISTERS, SLIGHTLY INJURING TWO BYSTANDERS, AND THE SECOND KILLED ONE INDIVIDUAL ASSESSED TO BE THE BOMBER. AN EMAIL POSSIBLY LINKED TO THE ATTACK WAS SENT TO SWEDISH SECURITY SERVICES AND MEDIA IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE EXPLOSIONS. THE EMAIL CALLED FOR ATTACKS IN EUROPE AND REFERENCED THE SWEDISH MILITARY DEPLOYMENT TO AFGHANISTAN AND SWEDISH ARTIST LARS VILKS, WHO IN 2007 PUBLISHED CONTROVERSIAL CARTOONS OF THE PROPHET MOHAMMED.

(U//FOUO) ON 26 NOVEMBER 2010, MOHAMED OSMAN MOHAMUDUSPER, A NATURALIZED U.S. CITIZEN FROM SOMALIA, ALLEGEDLY ATTEMPTED TO DETONATE WHAT HE BELIEVED WAS A VBIED PARKED NEAR THE ANNUAL CHRISTMAS TREE-LIGHTING CEREMONY IN PORTLAND, OREGON. ACCORDING TO THE FBI AFFIDAVIT, MOHAMUD CHOSE THE CEREMONY AS HIS TARGET BECAUSE HE WAS LOOKING FOR A “HUGE MASS THAT WILL…BE ATTACKED IN THEIR OWN ELEMENT WITH THEIR FAMILIES CELEBRATING THE HOLIDAYS.”

(U) POSSIBLE ATTACK METHODS AND SUGGESTED PROTECTIVE MEASURES

(U//FOUO) BASED ON OUR REVIEW OF HISTORICAL HOMELAND AND OVERSEAS TERRORIST PLOTS, WE ASSESS THAT TERRORISTS PLOTTING AN ATTACK WITHIN THE UNITED STATES COULD USE IEDS PLACED AND ABANDONED AT PREDETERMINED LOCATIONS OR CARRIED OR WORN BY SUICIDE OPERATIVES, REMOTELY DETONATED MULTIPLE IEDS THAT ARE TIMED FOR SEQUENTIAL EXPLOSIONS, OR VBIEDS. TERRORISTS COULD ALSO USE TACTICS FEATURING SMALL ARMS TO CONDUCT AN ATTACK, POSSIBLY IN COMBINATION WITH IEDS.

(U//FOUO) THE FOLLOWING MEASURES ARE RECOMMENDED TO MITIGATE THE THREAT FROM AN IED, VBIED, OR SMALL ARMS ATTACK:

(U//FOUO) ENSURE A SIMPLE AND CONSISTENT MECHANISM IS IN PLACE TO REPORT SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITIES.

(U//FOUO) FAMILIARIZE SECURITY PERSONNEL WITH PAST ATTACK TACTICS, ESPECIALLY THOSE USED AGAINST SECURITY MEASURES SIMILAR TO THOSE IN PLACE AT THEIR FACILITY.

(U//FOUO) PREVENT PATTERN RECOGNITION BY AN ADVERSARY BY MODIFYING SECURITY PROCEDURES SUCH AS THE PLACEMENT OF SECURITY BARRIERS AND TIMING OF PERIMETER PATROLS SO THEY OCCUR AT IRREGULAR INTERVALS.

(U//FOUO) FOR INDICATORS OF IED CONSTRUCTION AND CONCEALMENT, REFER TO THE FOLLOWING DHS-FBI “ROLL CALL RELEASE” PRODUCTS: CONCEALMENT OF SMALL CHARGE IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES, 18 SEPTEMBER 2009; EVOLVING TACTIC: IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES ARTFULLY CONCEALED IN UNDERGARMENTS, 29 DECEMBER 2009; POSSIBLE INDICATORS OF SUSPICIOUS ACQUISITION OF FERTILIZER, 14 MAY 2010; TERRORIST USE OF PROPANE CYLINDERS, 14 MAY 2010; PROPANE TANK THEFTS AND POTENTIAL FOR USE IN TERRORIST AND CRIMINAL ACTIVITY, 18 JUNE 2010; PRESSURE COOKERS AS IED COMPONENTS, 1 JULY 2010; USE OF COMMON PRECURSOR CHEMICALS TO MAKE HOMEMADE EXPLOSIVES, 12 AUGUST 2010; POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOITATION OF POSTAL AND COMMERCIAL SHIPPING COMPANIES, 31 OCTOBER 2010; SUSPICIOUS VEHICLE FIRES, 7 DECEMBER 2010.

(U//FOUO) FOR INFORMATION REGARDING SMALL ARMS TACTICS, REFER TO THE DHS-FBI JOINT BULLETIN, USE OF SMALL ARMS: EXAMINING LONE SHOOTERS AND SMALL-UNIT TACTICS, DATED 3 SEPTEMBER 2010 AND THE DHS-FBI-NCTC ROLL CALL RELEASE: SMALL-UNIT ASSAULT TACTICS, TECHNIQUES, AND PROCEDURES, DATED 26 OCTOBER 2010.

(U//FOUO) ESTABLISH COMMUNICATION MESSAGES TO BE BROADCAST OVER INTERCOMS TO INSTRUCT PERSONNEL ON IMMEDIATE ACTIONS.

(U//FOUO) IDENTIFY AND PRE-DESIGNATE PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EVACUATION ROUTES AND ASSEMBLY AREAS FOR BUILDING OR SITE OCCUPANTS.

(U//FOUO) CREATE SERPENTINE VEHICLE ACCESS AND CHOKE POINTS TO IMPEDE THE APPROACH OF A VBIED TOWARD ITS INTENDED TARGET.

(U//FOUO) USE CENTRALIZED PARKING AND SHUTTLE SERVICE.

(U//FOUO) INSTALL BARRIERS TO SEPARATE VEHICLES FROM CROWDS.

(U//FOUO) PLACE SECURITY GUARDS AT ACCESS POINTS AND PROHIBIT ENTRY OF SENSITIVE ITEMS.

(U//FOUO) POST ADDITIONAL SECURITY PERSONNEL IN AREAS WHERE LARGE GROUPS OF PEOPLE CONGREGATE.

(U//FOUO) RECOGNIZE THAT SECURITY BARRIERS MAY ONLY DELAY A DETERMINED ADVERSARY; ASSUME ADVERSARIES WILL EVENTUALLY DEFEAT UNMANNED BARRIERS AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

(U//FOUO) CONDUCT JOINT SCENARIO-BASED COUNTERTERRORISM TRAINING AND HOLD TABLE-TOP AND FULL-DRESS RESPONSE EXERCISES THAT EMPHASIZE COOPERATION AMONG LAW ENFORCEMENT, FIRE DEPARTMENT, EMERGENCY MEDICAL SERVICES, AND OTHER FIRST RESPONDERS.

(U//FOUO) COORDINATE SECURITY FORCE OPERATIONS WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT, AND POSSIBLY FEDERAL AND STATE AGENCIES FOR ACCESS TO BOMB SQUAD ASSETS INCLUDING EXPLOSIVES DETECTION K-9 TEAMS.

(U//FOUO) CONDUCT SURVEILLANCE DETECTION TRAINING.

(U//FOUO) USE INTERNAL SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS ACCESSIBLE REMOTELY BY RESPONDING LAW ENFORCEMENT.

(U) OUTLOOK

(U//FOUO) AL-QA’IDA AND OTHER TERRORIST GROUPS CONTINUE TO SEEK INNOVATIVE WAYS TO CONDUCT ATTACKS AND CIRCUMVENT SECURITY PROCEDURES, AND WE REMAIN CONCERNED THAT THE HOLIDAY SEASON PROVIDES ATTRACTIVE OPPORTUNITIES FOR TERRORISTS TO TARGET THE HOMELAND. IT IS IMPERATIVE THAT LAW ENFORCEMENT AND SECURITY PERSONNEL REMAIN ALERT FOR INDICATORS OF ATTACK PLANNING AND IMMEDIATELY REPORT ANY SUSPICIOUS ACTIVITY.

(U) REPORTING NOTICE

(U) DHS AND THE FBI ENCOURAGE RECIPIENTS OF THIS DOCUMENT TO REPORT INFORMATION CONCERNING SUSPICIOUS OR CRIMINAL ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL FBI JOINT TERRORISM TASK FORCE AND STATE AND MAJOR URBAN AREA FUSION CENTERS. THE FBI’S 24/7 STRATEGIC INFORMATION AND OPERATIONS CENTER CAN BE REACHED BY TELEPHONE NUMBER 202-323- 3300 OR BY EMAIL AT SIOC@IC.FBI.GOV. THE DHS NATIONAL OPERATIONS CENTER (NOC) CAN BE REACHED BY TELEPHONE AT (202) 282-9685 OR BY EMAIL AT NOC.FUSION@DHS.GOV. FBI REGIONAL PHONE NUMBERS CAN BE FOUND ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.FBI.GOV/CONTACT/FO/FO.HTM AND FUSION CENTER INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT HTTP://WWW.DHS.GOV/FILES/RESOURCES/EDITORIAL_0306.SHTM. FOR INFORMATION AFFECTING THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE COORDINATING CENTER (NICC), A SUB-ELEMENT OF THE NOC. THE NICC CAN BE REACHED BY TELEPHONE AT (202) 282-9201 OR BY EMAIL AT NICC@DHS.GOV. WHEN AVAILABLE, EACH REPORT SUBMITTED SHOULD INCLUDE THE DATE, TIME, LOCATION, TYPE OF ACTIVITY, NUMBER OF PEOPLE AND TYPE OF EQUIPMENT USED FOR THE ACTIVITY, THE NAME OF THE SUBMITTING COMPANY OR ORGANIZATION, AND A DESIGNATED POINT OF CONTACT.

(U) ADMINISTRATIVE NOTE: LAW ENFORCEMENT RESPONSE

(U//FOUO) INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN IS FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY. NO PORTION OF THIS BULLETIN SHOULD BE RELEASED TO THE MEDIA, THE GENERAL PUBLIC, OR OVER NONSECURE INTERNET SERVERS. RELEASE OF THIS MATERIAL COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT OR JEOPARDIZE INVESTIGATIVE ACTIVITIES.

(U) FOR COMMENTS OR QUESTIONS RELATED TO THE CONTENT OR DISSEMINATION OF THIS DOCUMENT, PLEASE CONTACT THE FBI COUNTERTERRORISM ANALYSIS SECTION AT (202) 324-3000 OR VIA EMAIL AT FBI_CTAS@IC.FBI.GOV, OR DHS/I&A PRODUCTION BRANCH STAFF AT IA.PM@HQ.DHS.GOV. END OF MESSAGE. 1292510546542