Public Intelligence

OSAC constituents operating in India face a multitude of threats, many of which are difficult to evaluate from a security standpoint. Often times, the international media will mimic the hyperbolic Indian news industry and sensationalize a security concern, resulting in significant private sector hand-wringing. One such example of this is the Communist Party of India-Maoist insurgency in India, popularly known as the Naxalite movement. For instance, Naxalites ambushed and killed 75 members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force on patrol in Chhattisgarh state on April 6, 2010. The disaster triggered alarmist headlines around the world. A headline in the British Independent on April 8 screamed “Who are the Naxalites and will they topple the Indian Government?” The attack also brought renewed attention to the Naxalites from publications such as The Economist and The New York Times, which typically publish maps showing the current “extent” of the Naxal problem alongside their analyses. Even the Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh is on record as saying that the Naxalites are the greatest threat India faces.

As the President said in his State of the Union address, in the face of violent extremism, “we are responding with the strength of our communities.” A vast majority of people in every American community resoundingly reject violence, and this certainly includes the violent, al-Qaeda-style ideology that claims to launch attacks in the name of their widely rejected version of Islam. We must use these facts as a tool against the threat of homegrown violent extremism. In conjunction with these communities and with the Department of Justice and the Program Manager for the Information Sharing Environment, we have published guidance on best practices for community partnerships, which has been distributed to local law enforcement across the country. DHS also holds regular regional meetings – which include state and local law enforcement, state and local governments, and community organizations – in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. These regional meetings have enabled participants to provide and receive feedback on successful community-oriented policing and other programs aimed at preventing violence.

Seattle Shield Program Suspicious Activity Report: iPhone Photography, February 3, 2011.

There have been several reports of counterfeit money being passed around the City of Boston since the beginning of December 2008. In the majority of incidents, counterfeit $20 dollar bills were used, but $10, $50 and $100 dollar bills have been used on occasion. The most frequent recipient of these counterfeit bills have been Taxi/ Livery drivers, restaurants and bars in the Dorchester (C11), South Boston (C6), Roxbury (B2) and Jamaica Plain (E13) areas. Boston Police, in conjunction with the United States Secret Service made an arrest on 2/3/09 of an individual that may be responsible for some of the counterfeit currency being passed around (CC# 090061459). Below please find a list of serial numbers that have been used in more than one incident, as well as a list of serial numbers used since 12/12/08.

Warrants in Jasper County, Missouri, Cass County, Missouri, Clay County, Missouri and Grand Saline, Texas have been issued for Donald Anthony Moses, aka Tony Moses, for financial exploitation of the elderly and felony theft targeting senior citizens by committing home-repair schemes. The most recent confirmed date that Moses committed a home-repair scheme was on 18 January 2011 in Manhattan, Kansas.

On December 15, 2009, the City of London Police released film footage of hostile reconnaissance conducted in July 2008 by an Algerian national (Subject 1). Subject 1 was stopped by two alert police officers who saw him using his cell phone camera to record video inside Liverpool Street Station in London. When the police officers examined the footage they found 90 minutes of video recording of various sites in and around London and several UK cities to include Tube and mainline rail stations, shopping areas, bars, and restaurants. His detention and the follow-up investigation led to the arrest of Subject 1’s brother (Subject 2) and a third Algerian male (Subject 3). British authorities also looked at 30 other individuals and recovered extremist material supporting al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb in one residence. Police believe the two brothers may have been fundraising and conducting surveillance for a future terrorist operation.

With the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt, OSAC constituents are concerned about opposition groups in other Middle Eastern countries attempting to stage similar uprisings. Many countries in the region, including Jordan, suffer from similar economic and demographic problems, which put them at increased risk of civil unrest. The recent series of Friday protests and subsequent conciliatory measures by King Abdullah has only increased these concerns. Nevertheless, Jordan is a unique country with significant differences, and its potential for civil unrest needs to be judged based on its own internal dynamics, even if that includes accounting for recent regional changes.

This Joint Special Event Threat Assessment (JSETA) addresses potential threats to the National Football League (NFL)USPER Super Bowl XLV, which will be played on 6 February 2011 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It focuses on potential threats to the game—and to various NFL-sanctioned events scheduled for the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex-area during the 12 days prior to the game—from international and domestic terrorists, cyber actors, criminals, and foreign intelligence services.

Five U.S. State Department Overseas Advisory Council Egyptian Revolution Warnings from January 26 – February 2, 2011.

Julian Assange Swedish Sex Allegations Documentation from November 23, 2010.

In Mexico, the violence generated by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in recent years has been, according to some, unprecedented. In 2006, Mexico’s newly elected President Felipe Calderón launched an aggressive campaign—an initiative that has defined his administration— against the DTOs that has been met with a violent response from the DTOs. Government enforcement efforts have had successes in removing some of the key leaders in all of the seven major DTOs. However, these efforts have led to violent succession struggles within the DTOs themselves. In July 2010, the Mexican government announced that more than 28,000 people had been killed in drug trafficking-related violence since December 2006, when President Calderón came to office.

Until shortly after 9/11, when the U.S. military launched an invasion intended to destroy Al Qaeda’s infrastructure and sanctuary, the vast majority of the terror network’s training camps were located in Afghanistan. According to the 9/11 Commission, between 1996 and 2001, a total of 10,000 to 20,000 individuals trained for jihad at camps such as Al-Farooq, Khalden, and Derunta. Other sources, such as former Senator Bob Graham, cite an estimate from the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center that, in fact, between 70,000 and 120,000 passed through Al Qaeda’s Afghan camps. A significant number of those attendees were Western citizens. For example, open sources report that in January 2002, British military intelligence discovered the names of 1,200 British citizens who trained with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. U.S citizens, such as Jose Padilla, John Walker Lindh, and the Lackawanna Six, also traveled to Afghanistan for training.

Social media usage in Portugal is growing and it is recognized by organizations as a useful communications tool, particularly amongst consumer brands. Although, the government has invested heavily in schools IT infrastructure, it is yet to embrace social media as part of its overall communications strategy and there remains great potential for the government or political parties to fully utilize social media. Similarly, there are cases of media outlets engaged in social media activity, although these are the exception, rather than the rule. The 16-24 year old age group is leading the digital movement in Portugal; it is this group which has benefited most from the unprecedented level of government investment However, it is important to recognize their predecessors, the 25-34 year old age group are also heavy users of the Internet.

Finland has a high level of Internet penetration and usage in comparison to other European nations. However, whilst the technology and capability exists to facilitate for a vibrant social media landscape, the conservative Finnish national character in conjunction with online security fears can be seen to be restricting this potential growth. In line with most European nations it is the younger age groups, namely 15-24 year olds who are most active online in Finland, whilst people who live by themselves are also active online participants. Most people access the Internet at home, however educational establishments are also common locations and many schools, colleges and universities are well equipped with IT facilities and Internet access. Men typically use the Internet as an information resource, whilst women and younger people use it as a communication tool.

In a the New York State court, a NYPD officer was questioned by the defense attorney regarding statements he had posted on his Facebook webpage that portrayed him as a rogue cop. At the conclusion of his testimony, what should have been a slam-dunk “ex-con with a gun” case, resulted in an acquittal for the defendant because of the reasonable doubt created by the officer’s own postings on Facebook and MySpace. In other words, his own website statements were used to impeach him. Convictions rest on the credibility of the officer(s). The defense strategy was to show the jury that what the officer writes about himself on social network websites is how he “really” conducts police work. The suspect in this case claimed that the officer used excessive force on him and broke three ribs. The suspect went on to allege that when the police officer realized that he would have to explain the broken ribs, he “planted” a stolen 9mm Beretta on the suspect and charged him with the offense.

An Arabic manual for Egyptian protesters circulated via email and in hard copy prior to the protests on Friday January 28, 2010.

(U//FOUO) THIS JOINT INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN PROVIDES LAW ENFORCEMENT AND PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR SAFETY OFFICIALS WITH AN EVALUATION OF POTENTIAL TERRORIST THREATS DURING THE 2010 U.S. HOLIDAY SEASON, EXTENDING FROM THE PRE-CHRISTMAS PERIOD THROUGH NEW YEAR’S DAY. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED TO SUPPORT THE ACTIVITIES OF DHS AND FBI AND TO HELP FEDERAL, STATE, AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT COUNTERTERRORISM AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS DETER, PREVENT, PREEMPT, OR RESPOND TO TERRORIST ATTACKS AGAINST THE UNITED STATES.

FOUO TSA Office of Intelligence Air Cargo Threat Overview from June 2008.

Norway boasts an active online community with high Internet penetration rates in comparison to the rest of Europe. In addition, access rates are high and spread fairly evenly across demographic groups, age ranges and locations. A range of social media activities are popular, including blogging and content sharing, however social networking is the most prominent activity, with Norwegian Facebook users now exceeding 2 million. A large number of Norwegian companies have an active social media presence with Facebook and Twitter the platforms of choice. Whilst, usage is high, few companies at present measure or evaluate social media and there is a reluctance to divert resources for this purpose. Social media is emerging as a defining behavior of Internet usage in Norway, and the government has been keen to harness social media as a potential engagement and consultation tool. The government is also in the process of designing an innovative electronic voting system to increase voter turnout, which is hoped to be trialled in 2011. The government clearly appreciates the value of a digitally inclusive society and has set an ambitious target of supplying broadband connectivity to the entire country. In order to aid digital inclusivity the Government also ensures the text on public websites is suitable for older and weak sighted people. In keeping with most of Norwegian society, politicians, journalists and NGOs are all increasingly using social media as a communications tool.

Internet penetration and usage in Romania is still relatively underdeveloped in comparison to the rest of Europe, with availability and usage limited mainly to Bucharest, the capital city. As a result, social media usage is also generally focused around Bucharest. As well as geographical limits for Internet activity, social demographics play a large part in determining Internet usage; with professionally-employed, university educated citizens representing by far the largest community active online. Amongst Internet users, social media use is growing in popularity; particularly social networking sites, blogging, photo and video sharing, and microblogging. Businesses are beginning to identify opportunities to use social media as part of their communications strategies. The government and state services have been slower to adopt social media, although individual politicians are experimenting with the media for campaigning purposes. While Romanian is widely used, English is the common language for conversation via social media in Romania. Politics is a very popular topic of conversation amongst Romanian Internet users, particularly given recent levels of political uncertainty. Concern currently exists that the lack of regulation over the Internet, combined with the real-time nature of the medium is devaluing the quality of content being consumed by the public. Although Internet use is low compared to the rest of Europe, social media are establishing a relevancy to Romanian society as a means to connect; share and debate and we can expect their use to grow.

Strategic use of social media by the Italian government is minimal, but there is evidence of limited use by political parties, particularly politicians who are leveraging their Facebook profiles to engage with voters. Commercial employment of social media and digital communications is limited in Italy although global brands are beginning to demonstrate some level of engagement with consumers through different social media platforms, primarily Facebook which is often used to generate conversation around specific products. Smaller businesses are expected to emulate this kind of social media engagement over the coming months.

Active shooter attacks are dynamic incidents that vary greatly from one attack to another. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) defines an active shooter as “an individual actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a confined and populated area.” In its definition, DHS notes that, “in most cases, active shooters use firearms(s) and there is no pattern or method to their selection of victims.” The New York City Police Department (NYPD) has limited this definition to include only those cases that spill beyond an intended victim to others.

The social media landscape in Belgium has grown considerably over the last few years and Belgians appear to be increasingly proactive in their social media endeavors as Internet access is obtainable from many electronic sources. All generations, young and old have familiarized themselves with the cell phone, iphone, Blackberry and Netbook usage in order to access social media sites while on the move. The rise in Internet access via mobile devices has created an abundance of new social media users.

The Internet and social media are in early stages of development in Belarus. The lack of infrastructure and the cost of access mean that the online community is characterized by affluent, educated middle classes from the metropolitan areas of the country (especially Minsk). Internet in Belarus has not yet achieved the penetration necessary to be socially representative. Despite the accessibility challenges, social media are still proving popular, particularly amongst younger demographics. Online information sources and especially social media, promise an impartiality that is often lacking in Belarusian mass media channels, which many consider to be overly influenced by the national government. From a political point of view, this has meant that opposition parties have been swifter to experiment with online engagement to gain public support, although their use of social media as strategic tool for campaigning is still relatively experimental.

The social media landscape in Spain is relatively mature since reading blogs and engaging on social networks is now a regular part of daily life for many people, particularly teenagers and young professional people. As in most other European countries, social media participation is higher in large cities, especially Madrid which is seen as the center of the technology and Web 2.0 industry in Spain (64.3% of households have Internet access). Social networking is the most popular social activity in Spain. Until recently the local platform Tuenti had the highest membership although the global platform Facebook has now usurped that with 100,000 more members (5.7 million total) and levels of traffic to rival Google.