Author Archive for Public Intelligence

Archistrategos.

ISO 20022 Standards and SWIFT

The T2S User Requirements Document (URD) states that “The T2S Interface shall use ISO 20022 as its single standard for all communications, both inbound and outbound”. Therefore messages have to be either ISO20022 registered, or at least compliant with the methodology of ISO200221. SWIFT plays an important role in the registration process of ISO 20022standards and in the development of messages for T2S. Therefore, at its meeting of 9-10 October, the AG agreed that clarification was needed on the relationship between ISO 20022standards and SWIFT2.

DHS Project Nemo Overview

*The growing number of SPSS vessels indicates that their stealthy characteristics and ability to carry many tons ofcocaine have helped them develop into what now seems to be a major component of the narcotics logistics chain•

* Colombian Navy believes that during the past two to three years, cocaine smuggling SPSS vessels have been arranged mostly by the drug trafficking factions of the FARC, probably in association with organized crime groups also involved in drug trafficking •

**Profit margin:–1 Kg of cocaine is sold in the US for ~$20 to $25,000 USD ($30 to $35,000 USD in Europe)

–7000 Kg of cocaine can be carried in a SPSS –Money earned: 7000 x 25,000 = $175 million USD

–Captain gets paid $20 to $25,000 USD per trip, other crew gets $5 to $6,000 USD per trip; Total crew cost ~$40,000 USD

–$1 to $2 million invested to build and run a SPSS is ~2 to 3% of the whole profit made

Reuse of N-95 Respirators Briefing Overview and Summary

1. Current stocks of disposable N-95 respirators will not be sufficient to meet demands within the health care community.

a. Increased number of sick individuals;

b. Decreased stores and available stock-on-hand;

c. Limited production with dependence on international production facilities;

d. Production and delivery may be impacted by staff and employee absenteeism;

e. The pandemic may result in the prolonged requirement for respiratory protection.

Glossary of Terms Related to Payment, Clearing, and Settlement Systems

Clearing fund – A fund composed of assets contributed by participants in a CCP, or by providers of guarantee arrangements, that may be used to meet the obligations of a defaulting CCP participant and/or in certain circumstances to settle transactions and cover losses and liquidity pressures resulting from such defaults. A Clearing Fund serves as insurance against unusual price movements not covered by the margin calculation in case of a member default. Each Clearing Member typically has to contribute to the Clearing Fund. It may consists of Clearing Members’ directly- deposited capital, or securities or third-party bank guarantees. It is used for securing the counterparty risk not covered by margin deposits.

Technical Group 3 Analysis of Target2-Securities Dedicated Cash Accounts

During its 28/29 November 2007 meeting, the Advisory Group agreed to add possible functionality in the URD on the prioritisation of multiple T2S dedicated cash accounts. The AG also asked TG3 to analyse the issue in more depth and the 3CB+ to calculate the additional costs of this approach. The AG agreed to review the matter in view of the feedback from the public consultation and the cost and the consequences for the market. Following the AG decision, the prioritisation of multiple T2S dedicated cash accounts functionality was immediately added into the URD by the project team.

Target2-Securities Economic Impact Analysis Status Report

On 18 December 2007, the ECB published the TARGET2-Securities (T2S) User Requirements Document for public consultation. In parallel, the ECB published a note setting out the proposed methodology for the economic impact analysis (EIA) of T2S. This note proposed two indicators to evaluate the potential benefits of T2S for market participants and the European economy. The first indicator is the average cost per settlement instruction. The aim of this indicator is to focus on a direct comparison between the cost per settlement instruction with T2S and the current market structures without T2S.

Target2-Securities User-Focused Programme Plan Cover Note

This consolidated programme plan encompasses all Eurosystem activities and is based on the ECB’s internal detailed planning and an extract of the 4CB’s internal planning. As part of the consolidation exercise, the project office of the ECB and of the 4CB tried to minimise the impact of the 7 additional months needed for the validation of the General Functional Specifications, without impacting the scope of T2S, the expected quality of the final delivery, the price or the go-live date. This was achieved through an increased parallelism of activities, in particular in the production of the UDFS and the conduct of the Eurosystem and User Acceptance testing phases.

Arkansas Multiyear Training and Exercise Plan

The purpose of the Multiyear Training and Exercise Plan (TEP) is to provide a follow-on companion document to the Arkansas Homeland Security Strategy. It is a living document that will be updated and refined annually. The Multiyear TEP provides a roadmap for Arkansas to follow in accomplishing the priorities described in the Homeland Security Strategy. Each priority is linked to a corresponding National Priority, and, if applicable, an Improvement Plan (IP) action. The priority is further linked to the associated target capabilities that would facilitate accomplishment of the priority and the training and exercises that will help the jurisdiction obtain those capabilities and achieve that priority. Included in the Multiyear TEP is the training and exercise schedule, which provides graphic illustration of the proposed activities, scheduled for the years 2007-2011.

U.S. Army RDECOM Environmental Acquisition and Logistics Sustainment Program

ESO Resource Management

* New Statement of Work for FY10 MIPRs
* FY10 funds are provided for program management, to include serving as the central point of contact to coordinate all environmental acquisition and logistics sustainment issues for [your command], participating on the EQT P2TT, coordinating bi-annual AERTA reviews, participating in technology project development and technology management plan reviews, providing direct support and coordination with supported PEOs/PMs, serving on environmental management teams and participating in programmatic and management review meetings as required by the Director, ESO and the Director, EALSP.
* FY10 funding levels similar to FY09
* CRA funding (~15%) has been distributed
* This is all we could get at RDECOM
* FY09 funding status

Team Submarine Technology Insertion Hardware Full and Open Competition

• TI Hardware is a new competitive procurement
– It is notan extension of the legacy AN/UYQ-70 program
• TI Hardware will provide the latest generation of display, processor and network units to Team Submarine systems
– Host for the TI-12 and TI-14 Technology Insertions
• Anticipated components include
– Computer processing and memory
– Data storage and extraction
– Input/Output (I/O) interfaces to support the processing system designed around commercially available hardware and software
• Procurements may include
– Upgrade kits, enclosures and / or full up systems for Seawolf, SSGN, 688/688i, VIRGINIA Class, COLLINS Class and future submarine systems/platforms

Communication on Clearing and Settlement – The Eurosystem’s Response

The Eurosystem strongly supports the Commission’s objective of creating a safe, efficient and integrated EU clearing and settlement infrastructure. In principle, the Communication identifies the key issues that need to be addressed in the field of clearing and settlement in order to enhance integration and reduce systemic risk. The present infrastructure for securities clearing and settlement transactions in the EU remains insufficiently harmonised, highly fragmented and inefficient for cross-border activities. Although some consolidation has been achieved, there remain a very large number of service providers with limited competition between each other.

Climatic Research Unit Documents: European climate policy adaptation and mitigation strategies

Climate change presents a new set of challenges for the development of public policy. This is because the time-scales involved between policy implementation and desired outcome are much longer than in other policy areas; because many areas of policy planning need simultaneously to be addressed, therefore placing a greater demand on the integration of policy across different realms; and because the truly global nature of the problem requires national or regional policies to be designed within some framework of global strategy.

Climatic Research Unit Emails: “even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!”

The jumps when the data input change stand out so clearly. NCEP does many odd things also around sea ice and over snow and ice. The other paper by MM is just garbage – as you knew. De Freitas again. Pielke is also losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as well – frequently as I see it. I can’t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !

Climatic Research Unit Strategic Review – Summary of External Input

The relatively high response rate and the considerable thought that most respondents put into answering the questions suggests that people feel positively about CRU and its future. This is also reflected in the overall nature of the responses – which indicate that CRU is widely and highly regarded. Taking all responses together, the full range of CRU’s past and current activities is acknowledged. The responses are thus largely reassuring and do not contain any major surprises so far as our current strengths and weaknesses are concerned – although a number of interesting insights require some thought.

Climate Research Unit Documents: Confidential Fabrication of Research Report

The Division for Research received an allegation against Wei-Chyung Wang, for fabrication and misrepresentation of research results as covered by the University at Albany Policy and Procedures on Misconduct in Research and Scholarship.

It is alleged that Dr. Wang fabricated and misrepresented research results in two research papers he co-authored

> Jones P.D., Groisman P.Y., Coughian M., Plummer N., Wang w.-C., Karl T.R. (1990), “Assessment of urbanization effects in time series of surface air temperature over land”, Nature,
347: 169—172

> Wang W.-C., Zeng Z., Karl T.R. (1990), “Urban heat islands in China”, Geophysical Research Letters, 17: 2377-2380

Climatic Research Unit Emails: “You are asking people to prostitute themselves”

Your approach of trying to gain scientific credibility for your personal views by asking people to endorse your letter is reprehensible. No scientist who wishes to maintain respect in the community should ever endorse any statement unless they have examined the issue fully themselves. You are asking people to prostitute themselves by doing just this! I fear that some will endorse your letter, in the mistaken belief that you are making a balanced and knowledgeable assessment of the science — when, in fact, you are presenting a flawed view that neither accords with IPCC nor with the bulk of the scientific and economic literature on the subject.

Climatic Research Unit Documents: IPCC Working Group Fourth Assessment Expert Review

I have four chief concerns with this chapter. First, there are numerous important references left out, and an over-emphasis on papers by the authors themselves, which do not accurately reflect the communities’ view. In general, the certainty with which this chapter presents our understanding of abrupt climate change is overstated. There is confusion between hypothesis and evidence throughout the chapter, and a great deal of confusion on the difference between an abrupt “climate change” and possible, hypothetical cuases of such climate changes (e.g. Heinrich events). Second, the use of the terms “very likely”, “likely”, etc. are not in conformance with the rest of the IPCC document — some things that are virtually certain are listed as “likely” and mere hypotheses, largely untested, are listed as “very likely”. This carelessness does not add credibility to this chapter. Third, extensive reference is made to a very few recent papers that have not yet been thoroughly considered by the scientific community, and whose relevance to future climate is, in my judgement, greatly overstated.

Climatic Research Unit Emails: “Mike’s Nature trick” to “hide the decline”

I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith’s to hide the decline. Mike’s series got the annual
land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray.

Climatic Research Unit Emails: “I pulled every trick out of my sleeve”

I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material, but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk something out of that. It was pretty funny though – I told Malcolm
what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating the response functions – he laughed and said that’s what he thought at first also. The data’s tempting but there’s too much variation even within stands. I don’t think it’d be productive to try and juggle the chronology statistics any more than I already have – they just are what they are (that does sound Graybillian). I think I’ll have to look for an option where I can let this little story go as it is.

Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique Regional Communications Infrastructure

Incomplete liberalization is keeping prices high. While many countries in the region have implemented reforms to promote greater competition and private sector participation in various ICT sub-sectors, incomplete liberalization in most of the region has allowed incumbent telecommunications operators to use their monopoly power to keep prices high in areas key to economic development such as international bandwidth and access to Internet. Over the past five years, the policy trend in the ICT sector has moved in one direction – that of more competition – and this i s having a significant positive impact on customers. However, a key issue which is emerging, particularly in relation to the development of backbone networks and broadband services, i s the details of market liberalization and regulation.