The recent social unrest and subsequent government overthrows in Egypt and Tunisia have had deep reverberations not only around the Middle East, but throughout the world. While speculation proliferates about which country will be the next to experience such tumult, a critical analysis of important variables present in both countries should be applied to any other country when making this assessment. In this report, those variables will be analyzed with respect to the People’s Republic of China, and the probability it will be the next country to experience social unrest.
United States
Transportation Security Administration
(U//FOUO) TSA Liquid and Natural Gas Pipeline Threat Assessment 2011
The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA’s) mission includes enhancing the security preparedness of U.S. hazardous liquid and natural gas pipeline systems. This TSA Office of Intelligence (TSA-OI) threat assessment primarily addresses the potential for attacks against the pipeline industry in the Homeland and assesses the tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) used in attacks against pipelines and related infrastructure overseas for their potential use by terrorists in the Homeland.
Transportation Security Administration
(U//FOUO) TSA Pipeline Security Smart Practices Report
U.S. hazardous liquids and natural gas pipelines are critical to the nation’s commerce and economy and, as a consequence, they can be attractive targets for terrorists. Before September 11, 2001, safety concerns took precedence over physical and operational security concerns for a majority of pipeline operators. Security matters were mainly limited to prevention of minor theft and vandalism. The terrorist attacks of 9/11 forced a thorough reconsideration of security, especially with respect to critical infrastructure and key resources. Pipeline operators have responded by seeking effective ways to incorporate security practices and programs into overall business operations.
Intelligence Fusion Centers, Louisiana
(U//LES) LA-SAFE Geomagnetic Storm Warning
A series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are en route to Earth from a sunspot which will buffet the Earth’s magnetic field during the next 12 to 60 hours. These CMEs are a result of the strongest solar flare in more than four years, which peaked on February 15th and registered as an X-flare. X-flares are the strongest type of solar flare. NOAA forecasters estimate a 45% chance of geomagnetic activity on February 17, 2011. Geomagnetic storms usually last 24 to 48 hours, but some may last for many days. They also have the capability of disrupting communication systems, navigation systems and electric grids.
Department of Homeland Security, Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//FOUO) DHS-FBI Cyanide Production Indicators Guide
FOUO DHS-FBI Cyanide Production Indicators Reference Guide from November 2010.
Infragard
HBGary InfraGard IT/IS Rules of Behavior
HBGary InfraGard IT/IS Rules of Behavior Agreement from October 4, 2010.
Intelligence Fusion Centers
Fusion Centers Map, Locations, Contact Information
A nearly complete list of the actual physical locations, phone numbers, and email addresses of fusion centers around the United States.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
HBGary Infragard Hospital Cyber Attacks Brief
HBGary Northern California Infragard “Anatomy of a Cyber Terrorist Attack on the Nation’s Hospital Infrastructure” from October 19, 2010.
Corporate, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
HBGary DARPA Cyber Genome Technical Management Proposal
While it is a challenging undertaking, we plan to research and develop a fully automated malware analysis framework that will produce results comparable with the best reverse engineering experts, and complete the analysis in a fast, scalable system without human interaction. In the completed mature system, the only human involvement will be the consumption of reports and visualizations of malware profiles. Our approach is a major shift from common binary and malware analysis today, requiring manual labor by highly skilled and well-paid engineers. Results are slow, unpredictable, expensive and don’t scale. Engineers are required to be proficient with low-level assembly code and operating system internals. Results depend upon their ability to interpret and model complex program logic and ever-changing computer states. The most common tools are disassemblers for static analysis and interactive debuggers for dynamic analysis. The best engineers have an ad-hoc collection of non-standard homegrown or Internet-collected plug-ins. Complex malware protection mechanisms, such as packing, obfuscation, encryption and anti-debugging techniques, present further challenges that slow down and thwart traditional reverse engineering technique.
Corporate, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
HBGary General Dynamics DARPA Cyber Genome Program Proposal
Current technologies and methods for producing and examining relationships between software products, particularly malware, are lacking at best. The use of hashing or “fuzzy” hashing and matching techniques are conducted at the program level, ignoring any reflection of the actual development process of malware. This approach is only effective at finding closely related variants or matching artifacts found within malware that are only tangent to the development process, such as hard coded IP address, domains, or login information. This matching process is often unaware of internal software structure except in the most rudimentary sense, dealing with entire sections of code at a time, attempting to align matches while dealing with arbitrary block boundaries. The method is akin to an illiterate attempting comparing two books on the same topic. Such a person would have a chance of correlating different editions of the same book, but not much else. The first fundamental flaw in today’s approach is that it ignores our greatest advantage in understanding relationships in malware lineage, we can deduce program structure into blocks (functions, objects, and loops) that reflect the development process and gives software its lineage through code reuse.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
FBI Academic Alliance Counterintelligence Partnership Briefing
FBI Academic Alliance Briefing from October 27, 2010.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//FOUO) FBI College Campus Liaison Initiative Brief
FOUO FBI College “Campus Liaison Initiative Brief” from June 2010.
Intelligence Fusion Centers, New York
(U//LES) New York State Intelligence Center “Vigilance Project”: Domestic Terrorism Analysis
The Vigilance Project is a comprehensive, analytic report that examines major terrorism cases that have taken place against the Homeland since September 11, 2001. The report serves as a historical compilation of acts or attempted acts of terrorism against the United States, or its interests, and as a tool to identify trends and commonalities among the cases and the subjects involved. It is recognized that the threat environment is dynamic and potential threats are not limited to the findings contained in this report. As the title suggests, it is the duty of every citizen to remain vigilant in the face of terrorism. The findings of this report allow readers to gain an understanding of terrorism participants, their tactics and procedures, and become aware of similarities among the cases, in order to draw useful conclusions. The ultimate goal of the Vigilance Project is to provide useful information to law enforcement partners to support their role in preventing the next attack.
Department of State
U.S. State Department OSAC Caucasus Emirate Reports
Two U.S. State Department OSAC Reports on the Caucasus Emirate from August and September 2010.
Department of State
U.S. State Department OSAC Maoist/Naxalite Threat to the U.S. Private Sector
OSAC constituents operating in India face a multitude of threats, many of which are difficult to evaluate from a security standpoint. Often times, the international media will mimic the hyperbolic Indian news industry and sensationalize a security concern, resulting in significant private sector hand-wringing. One such example of this is the Communist Party of India-Maoist insurgency in India, popularly known as the Naxalite movement. For instance, Naxalites ambushed and killed 75 members of India’s Central Reserve Police Force on patrol in Chhattisgarh state on April 6, 2010. The disaster triggered alarmist headlines around the world. A headline in the British Independent on April 8 screamed “Who are the Naxalites and will they topple the Indian Government?” The attack also brought renewed attention to the Naxalites from publications such as The Economist and The New York Times, which typically publish maps showing the current “extent” of the Naxal problem alongside their analyses. Even the Prime Minister of India Manmohan Singh is on record as saying that the Naxalites are the greatest threat India faces.
Department of Homeland Security
DHS Secretary Napolitano Testimony on “Homeland Threat Landscape”
As the President said in his State of the Union address, in the face of violent extremism, “we are responding with the strength of our communities.” A vast majority of people in every American community resoundingly reject violence, and this certainly includes the violent, al-Qaeda-style ideology that claims to launch attacks in the name of their widely rejected version of Islam. We must use these facts as a tool against the threat of homegrown violent extremism. In conjunction with these communities and with the Department of Justice and the Program Manager for the Information Sharing Environment, we have published guidance on best practices for community partnerships, which has been distributed to local law enforcement across the country. DHS also holds regular regional meetings – which include state and local law enforcement, state and local governments, and community organizations – in Chicago, Detroit, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. These regional meetings have enabled participants to provide and receive feedback on successful community-oriented policing and other programs aimed at preventing violence.
Washington
Seattle Shield Program Suspicious Activity Report: iPhone Photography
Seattle Shield Program Suspicious Activity Report: iPhone Photography, February 3, 2011.
Intelligence Fusion Centers, Massachusetts
Boston Regional Intelligence Center Counterfeit Money Advisory
There have been several reports of counterfeit money being passed around the City of Boston since the beginning of December 2008. In the majority of incidents, counterfeit $20 dollar bills were used, but $10, $50 and $100 dollar bills have been used on occasion. The most frequent recipient of these counterfeit bills have been Taxi/ Livery drivers, restaurants and bars in the Dorchester (C11), South Boston (C6), Roxbury (B2) and Jamaica Plain (E13) areas. Boston Police, in conjunction with the United States Secret Service made an arrest on 2/3/09 of an individual that may be responsible for some of the counterfeit currency being passed around (CC# 090061459). Below please find a list of serial numbers that have been used in more than one incident, as well as a list of serial numbers used since 12/12/08.
Federal Bureau of Investigation, Kansas, Missouri, Texas
(U//LES) FBI Texas, Missouri and Kansas Senior Citizen Scam Report
Warrants in Jasper County, Missouri, Cass County, Missouri, Clay County, Missouri and Grand Saline, Texas have been issued for Donald Anthony Moses, aka Tony Moses, for financial exploitation of the elderly and felony theft targeting senior citizens by committing home-repair schemes. The most recent confirmed date that Moses committed a home-repair scheme was on 18 January 2011 in Manhattan, Kansas.
Department of State
U.S. State Department OSAC Cell Phone Video Surveillance Warning
On December 15, 2009, the City of London Police released film footage of hostile reconnaissance conducted in July 2008 by an Algerian national (Subject 1). Subject 1 was stopped by two alert police officers who saw him using his cell phone camera to record video inside Liverpool Street Station in London. When the police officers examined the footage they found 90 minutes of video recording of various sites in and around London and several UK cities to include Tube and mainline rail stations, shopping areas, bars, and restaurants. His detention and the follow-up investigation led to the arrest of Subject 1’s brother (Subject 2) and a third Algerian male (Subject 3). British authorities also looked at 30 other individuals and recovered extremist material supporting al-Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb in one residence. Police believe the two brothers may have been fundraising and conducting surveillance for a future terrorist operation.
Department of State, Jordan
U.S. State Department OSAC Jordan Political Protests Bulletin
With the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt, OSAC constituents are concerned about opposition groups in other Middle Eastern countries attempting to stage similar uprisings. Many countries in the region, including Jordan, suffer from similar economic and demographic problems, which put them at increased risk of civil unrest. The recent series of Friday protests and subsequent conciliatory measures by King Abdullah has only increased these concerns. Nevertheless, Jordan is a unique country with significant differences, and its potential for civil unrest needs to be judged based on its own internal dynamics, even if that includes accounting for recent regional changes.
Department of Homeland Security, Federal Bureau of Investigation, National Counterterrorism Center, U.S. Northern Command
(U//FOUO) DHS-FBI-NORTHCOM Super Bowl 2011 Joint Special Event Threat Assessment
This Joint Special Event Threat Assessment (JSETA) addresses potential threats to the National Football League (NFL)USPER Super Bowl XLV, which will be played on 6 February 2011 at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, Texas. It focuses on potential threats to the game—and to various NFL-sanctioned events scheduled for the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex-area during the 12 days prior to the game—from international and domestic terrorists, cyber actors, criminals, and foreign intelligence services.
Department of State, Egypt
U.S. State Department OSAC Egyptian Revolution Warnings January-February 2011
Five U.S. State Department Overseas Advisory Council Egyptian Revolution Warnings from January 26 – February 2, 2011.
Congressional Research Service
Mexico’s Drug Trafficking Organizations: Source and Scope of the Rising Violence
In Mexico, the violence generated by drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) in recent years has been, according to some, unprecedented. In 2006, Mexico’s newly elected President Felipe Calderón launched an aggressive campaign—an initiative that has defined his administration— against the DTOs that has been met with a violent response from the DTOs. Government enforcement efforts have had successes in removing some of the key leaders in all of the seven major DTOs. However, these efforts have led to violent succession struggles within the DTOs themselves. In July 2010, the Mexican government announced that more than 28,000 people had been killed in drug trafficking-related violence since December 2006, when President Calderón came to office.
New York
New York Office of Homeland Security Post 9-11 Terrorist Training Infrastructure Report
Until shortly after 9/11, when the U.S. military launched an invasion intended to destroy Al Qaeda’s infrastructure and sanctuary, the vast majority of the terror network’s training camps were located in Afghanistan. According to the 9/11 Commission, between 1996 and 2001, a total of 10,000 to 20,000 individuals trained for jihad at camps such as Al-Farooq, Khalden, and Derunta. Other sources, such as former Senator Bob Graham, cite an estimate from the CIA’s Counterterrorism Center that, in fact, between 70,000 and 120,000 passed through Al Qaeda’s Afghan camps. A significant number of those attendees were Western citizens. For example, open sources report that in January 2002, British military intelligence discovered the names of 1,200 British citizens who trained with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. U.S citizens, such as Jose Padilla, John Walker Lindh, and the Lackawanna Six, also traveled to Afghanistan for training.