The FSB has roughly estimated the size of the global shadow banking system at around € 46 trillion in 2010, having grown from € 21 trillion in 2002. This represents 25-30% of the total financial system and half the size of bank assets. In the United States, this proportion is even more significant, with an estimated figure of between 35% and 40%. However, according to the FSB estimates, the share of the assets of financial intermediaries other than banks located in Europe as a percentage of the global size of shadow banking system has strongly increased from 2005 to 2010, while the share of US located assets has decreased. On a global scale, the share of those assets held by European jurisdictions has increased from 10 to 13% for UK intermediaries, from 6 to 8% for NL intermediaries, from 4% to 5% for DE intermediaries and from 2% to 3% for ES intermediaries. FR and IT intermediaries maintained their previous shares in the global shadow banks assets of 6% and 2% respectively.
Author Archive for Public Intelligence
Australia
Australia National Security Lawful Interception Legislation Discussion Paper
Telecommunications interception reform recognises that there are significant challenges facing intelligence and law enforcement agencies in accessing communications, particularly in keeping pace with rapid changes in the telecommunications environment. New, emerging and future technologies impact on the ability of these agencies to access communications to collect intelligence and effectively detect and prosecute crimes. The Australian Crime Commission’s Future of Organised Criminality in Australia 2020 assessment reveals that access to highly effective software, ciphers and other methodologies are increasingly being utilised by organised crime to impede detection by law enforcement. Lawful interception, therefore, is the most important tool in the investigation and prosecution of serious and organised and other technology‐enabled crime, and is vital to effectively collect security intelligence. Proposed reforms seek to allow those agencies to utilise modern technologies to maintain effective investigative techniques.
U.S. Army
U.S. Army Military Police School Enemy Prisoner of War and Civilian Internee Policy and Operations Courses
As a military police supervisor, you may become involved with EPW/CI operations in a variety of ways. The Army Military Police have the primary responsibility for EPW/CI operations for the Department of Defense. In any form of hostilities in which the United States is involved, persons that are captured or surrender who cannot be readily classified will be treated as EPW/CI until such time as they are reclassified by competent authority. This includes low intensity conflicts, as well as declared wars. In some cases, you may find yourself as an advisor to other countries. You will be expected to encourage those whom you are advising to afford the same treatment to their prisoners.
Afghanistan, U.S. Marine Corps
(U//FOUO) U.S. Marine Corps Intelligence Activity Afghanistan: Key Bases and Figures of the Mujahideen
Afghanistan’s Pashtun rural population has been the source of manpower, funds, shelter, support, and intelligence for the repeated insurgencies that have plagued that unfortunate county since their monarch, Zahir Shah, was overthrown in 1973. In the general unrest that followed, insurgents opposed Mohammad Daoud’s army until he was overthrown by the communists who served in succession – Taraki, Amin, Karmal, and Najibullah. The communist leadership figures, in turn, were deposed by the anti-communist “Seven Party Alliance” that was soon battling among itself for control of Kabul until the Taliban Movement emerged. The Taliban was also faced with resisting insurgent forces, primarily from the non-Pashtun ethnic groups inhabiting Afghanistan’s northern provinces. Afghanistan’s rural insurgents are generally poorly educated, if literate at all, and succeeding generations of insurgents rely upon story-telling from earlier generations of fighters to gain knowledge of tactics that are applicable to their particular culture and terrain.
Department of Homeland Security, Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//FOUO) DHS-FBI Suspicious Activity Reporting Bulletin: Terrorists Eliciting Information
Terrorist or criminals may attempt to identify critical infrastructure vulnerabilities by eliciting information pertaining to operational and security procedures from security personnel, facility employees, and their associates. Persistent, intrusive or probing questions about security, operations or other sensitive aspects of a facility by individuals with no apparent need for the information could provide early warning of a potential attack.
Department of Homeland Security, Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//FOUO) DHS-FBI Bulletin: Terrorist Interest in Attacking Theaters and Mass Gatherings
An early April 2012 suicide bombing of a theater in Somalia and a violent extremist communication advocating attacks on US theaters highlight terrorists’ continued interest in attacking such venues. Although we have no specific or credible information indicating that terrorists plan to attack theaters in the United States, terrorists may seek to emulate overseas attacks on theaters here in the United States because they have the potential to inflict mass casualties and cause local economic damage.
Headline
DoD Current and Future U.S. Drone Activities Map
The following map depicts the approximate locations of current and planned Department of Defense unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) activities inside the U.S. The locations, service branches, and types of UAS flown were obtained from several publicly released DoD presentations. If…
Open Source Center
(U//FOUO) Open Source Center Al-Qaeda Master Narratives Report
This report is focused on helping US communicators and analysts better identify opportunities to undermine AQ messaging. With this in mind, the report analyzes how AQ portrays itself and its objectives to the public through statements and multimedia releases – the messaging used to attract recruits, build public sympathy, and undermine adversaries such as the United States. Research for this analysis included AQ messaging dating back to 2000, with particular attention paid to recent messaging from 2009-2011. In addition to primary sources and open source research, interviews with 25 SMEs were used to surface master narratives, test hypotheses, and validate assertions. These SMEs were asked a combination of expansive, open-ended questions designed to surface new hypotheses as well as targeted questions designed to verify assertions. Combining these interviews with open source research, this report highlights how each master narrative reflects perceived history, themes, and objectives that are central to AQ’s public identity. Each of these master narratives appear with varied frequency across AQ messaging and propaganda, and collectively they represent a unified narrative system used by AQ and affiliate communicators.
California, Colorado, Department of Homeland Security, Intelligence Fusion Centers, Nevada, New York
(U//FOUO) DHS Terrorist Interest in Using Fire as a Weapon
International terrorist groups and violent extremists have long shown interest in using fire as a weapon due to the low cost and limited technical expertise required, the potential for causing large-scale damage, and the low risk of apprehension. Recent encouragement of use of this tactic by terrorist groups and violent extremists in propaganda materials and extremist Web forums is directed at Western audiences and supports Homeland attacks.
Afghanistan, U.S. Marine Corps
(U//FOUO) U.S. Marine Corps Civil Affairs Detachment Operations in Afghanistan Lessons Learned
The Commanders Emergency Response Program (CERP) funds were the primary mechanism employed by Det L in using money as a weapons system. CERP funds were most readily available and afforded CA flexibility and responsiveness. CA Marines also used Post-Operations Emergency Relief Fund (POERF), an International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) NATO fund available for named operations. With the MEB higher headquarters (Regional Command-South) able to authorize single expenditures of up to 17,500 Euros (approximately U.S. $23,301) and as much as 70,000 Euros (approximately U.S. $93,204) available at a given time, the benefits of POERF included the ability to fill gaps when CERP was not available or could not be used due to statutory restrictions. For example, governed by ISAF SOP 930 and described as having fewer bureaucratic hurdles to overcome than CERP, POERF was used to rapidly fund programs such as providing emergency financial assistance to internally displaced people who were forced to relocate due to MEB military operations.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
NASA Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project
A presentation from April 2012 discussing NASA’s Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project which will work to overcome problems integrating drones into the domestic airspace.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//LES) FBI-NGIC Gang Criminal Activity Expanding Into Juvenile Prostitution
The National Gang Intelligence Center (NGIC) and the FBI’s Crimes Against Children Unit (CACU) assesses with medium confidence that gang activity is expanding towards juvenile prostitution primarily for its steady financial rewards and perceived low risk of law enforcement interaction. Historically, prison, street and outlaw motorcycle gangs profit from drug distribution and have recently become involved in non-traditional criminal activity such as mortgage fraud and identity theft. Some gangs appear to be diversifying their income by reducing or eliminating drug trafficking activities in favor of juvenile prostitution.
U.S. Air Force
U.S. Air Force Safety Center Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Mishap Statistics FY1997-FY2011
Several statistics reports on unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) mishaps that are compiled yearly by the Air Force Safety Center. The following reports are the most recent that are publicly available.
National Guard
(U//FOUO) National Guard Geospatial Information Interoperability Exploitation Portable (GIIEP) User Guide
A user guide for the National Guard’s Geospatial Information Interoperability Exploitation Portable (GIIEP) system from March 2010.
Federal Bureau of Investigation
(U//LES) FBI Domestic Terrorism Operations Unit Introduction to Sovereign Citizens
Sovereign citizens believe the government is operating outside of its jurisdiction and generally do not recognize federal, state, or local laws, policies, or governmental regulations. They subscribe to a number of conspiracy theories, including a prevalent theory which states the United States Government (USG) became bankrupt and began using citizens as collateral in trade agreements with foreign governments. They believe secret bank accounts exist at the United States (US) Department of the Treasury. These accounts can be accessed using Internal Revenue Service (IRS), Universal Commercial Code (UCC), and fraudulent financial documents.
Open Source Center
(U//FOUO) Open Source Center Changes in Afghan Political Landscape Leading Up to 2014
Open source reporting indicates the Afghan political landscape, presently dominated by four political groupings and a number of prominent politicians, is likely to undergo further changes in the lead-up to the presidential elections and withdrawal of ISAF forces in 2014. Differing views of the Taliban threat as ISAF withdraws is likely to help drive the realignment and consolidation of political forces. This realignment may result in two major groupings: President Hamid Karzai and allies keen on working with the Taliban versus former anti-Taliban forces and others opposed to the government’s alleged appeasement toward the militants. Such consolidation would likely lead the emerging generation of younger leaders to choose between joining one of the groupings or risk being marginalized at the national level. Four main political groupings — Karzai’s camp, the National Front of Afghanistan (NFA), the National Coalition of Afghanistan (NCA), and the Truth and Justice Party (TJP) — are currently dominating the Afghan political scene.
U.S. Marine Corps
(U//FOUO) U.S. Marine Corps 21st‐Century Marine Expeditionary Intelligence Analysis (MEIA‐21)
21st‐Century Marine Expeditionary Intelligence Analysis (MEIA‐21) is a formal initiative to structure, standardize, and professionalize tactical intelligence analysis in the Marine Corps. It professionalizes Marine expeditionary intelligence, equipping intelligence analysts with analytically rigorous Structured Models, Approaches, and Techniques (SMATs)—applied tradecraft—to provide commanders with actionable, reliable tactical intelligence in conventional and irregular warfare while also instilling the cognitive and creative skills to create and refine that tradecraft.
U.S. Army
U.S. Army Regulation 190–8 Enemy Prisoners of War, Retained Personnel, Civilian Internees and Other Detainees
This regulation provides policy, procedures, and responsibilities for the administration, treatment, employment, and compensation of enemy prisoners of war (EPW), retained personnel (RP), civilian internees (CI) and other detainees (OD) in the custody of U.S. Armed Forces. This regulation also establishes procedures for transfer of custody from the United States to another detaining power.
News
Canadian Military Demands Removal of Counterinsurgency Manual From Public Intelligence
A representative of the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) has demanded the removal of a document on Canadian Land Force Counterinsurgency Operations that was first released by WikiLeaks in August 2009. The document was published on this website in April 2010 after a copy of the report that was clearer and easier to read was found to be available online. In May 2010, the manual was written about by Doug Saunders, a journalist working for the Globe and Mail who also reproduced the document in full.
U.S. Navy
U.S. Navy Fleet Telecommunications Procedures NTP-4 Echo
The focus of NTP-4 Echo (Naval Communications) is to provide a basic manual addressing C4I concepts and capabilities in the U.S. Navy. Due to increased proliferation of Information Technology (IT) within DoN and the high demand for information dominance within the battle space, the need for a “primary source” C4I document has never been greater. To that end, Naval Network Warfare Command initiated a major revision to this publication reflecting the latest C4I equipment/systems in use today.
Office of the Director of National Intelligence
Director of National Intelligence Knowledge Assertions and Knowledge Organization Systems Presentation
Presentation on Knowledge Assertions and Knowledge Organization Systems from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Chief Information Officer dated July 16, 2009.
U.S. Special Operations Command
Joint Special Operations University Report on Convergence of Special Forces and Civilian Law Enforcement
In recent years there has been an apparent convergence of the operations conducted by Special Operations Forces (SOF) and those of civilian law enforcement agencies (LEAs), especially Special Weapons and Tactics (SWAT) units, in what were formerly separate and distinct missions. The requirements to obtain warrants prior to execution of raids for high-value targets, collect and preserve evidence for criminal prosecution, and on occasion present testimony in courts of law are new missions for SOF. They are not relatively simple changes in the rules of engagement or comparable techniques. As far as can be determined, previously no U.S. military combat arms unit has ever been tasked with such a mission during combat operations. The thesis is straightforward; if such missions are to continue, then consideration must be given to adequate training for them.
Florida, Intelligence Fusion Centers
(U//LES) Central Florida Intelligence Exchange CopBlock.org Bulletin
Cop Block, based on the description on their Facebook page, is a “decentralized project supported by a diverse group of individuals united by their shared goals of police accountability, education of individual rights and the dissemination of effective tactics to utilize while filming police.” The project was founded in 2010 by an individual who started Cop Block due to his personal experiences with law enforcement when he was “a victim of the war on drugs, twice”.
China, United States
Chinese Capabilities for Computer Network Operations and Cyber Espionage
The PLA’s sustained modernization effort over the past two decades has driven remarkable transformation within the force and put the creation of modern command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (C4ISR) infrastructure at the heart of the PLA’s strategic guidelines for long term development. This priority on C4ISR systems modernization, has in turn been a catalyst for the development of an integrated information warfare (IW) capability capable of defending military and civilian networks while seizing control of an adversary’s information systems during a conflict.
Afghanistan, U.S. Marine Corps
(U//FOUO) U.S. Marine Corps Information Operations in Afghanistan Lessons Learned Report
The effective employment of IO to influence primary target audiences, including the population, local leaders, host nation security forces, government officials, and insurgents, is a key component of counterinsurgency (COIN) operations.